The next bitcoin halving is about 30,000 blocks away and Chinese miner manufacturers are racing against each other to roll out the next generation of equipment that leaps into the sub-20 J/TH era.
Bitmain debuted the Antminer S21 and S21 Hydro on Friday with an efficiency of 17.5 and 16 J/TH, respectively. The company expects to ship the equipment in bulk starting from Q1 2024. Canaan launched the Avalon 14 series earlier this month with an efficiency of 19.5 J/TH. MicroBT tweeted last week that it is launching the WhatsMiner M60 series in October in Dubai. Word on the street is that it will be available by year-end with an efficiency of 18 J/TH.
The competition is a net positive for the industry as more advanced and energy-efficient bitcoin ASICs can help lower the breakeven point for mining companies, which is critical post-halving. Here’s a scenario analysis by TheMinerMag of the breakeven bitcoin prices at different network hashrate and power prices.
What does that mean? Bitcoin’s 7-day moving average hashrate is around 420 EH/s as of writing. At such a difficulty level and an assumed $0.07/kWh energy rate, a mining fleet with an efficiency of 22 J/TH would need bitcoin’s price to be $34.5k to remain profitable after halving. With a fleet efficiency of 17.5 J/TH, the breakeven point will come down to $27.4k, and even lower to $25.1k at 16 J/TH.
The energy efficiency of bitcoin ASICs over the decade of their existence has improved dramatically, bolstering the fundamental security of the network. Canaan shipped the very first batch of consumer bitcoin ASICs in January 2013. They came with an efficiency of 6 J/GH, or 6000 J/TH.
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